Nearly 10 years of performance give the answer!Holding stocks for holidays: Shandong Stock rises seven times in ten years on the first day after the festival
Economic guide newspaper reporter when the super “hold a holiday, still hold a coin holiday?”With the recent pullback in the A-share market and the approaching Lunar New Year holiday, the discussion on this topic has intensified.Reporters from Economic Herald have noticed that the current mainstream view of brokers still suggests holding shares during the festival. For example, Yan Xiang, an analyst from Founder Securities, pointed out that in the past 12 years, the average cumulative yield of the Wind Index in the five trading days after the Spring Festival is 1.4%, that is, the “Spring Festival red envelope” of the A-share market has significant characteristics of low risk and high yield.It is worth noting that in the past 10 years (2012-2021), the performance of the first trading day after the Spring Festival, Shandong stocks rose in 7 years, the probability of rise reached 70%, “holding the holiday” has a high grip.From the perspective of plate performance, shandong non-ferrous, chemical, new energy, electronics and other plates in recent years, the first day after the Spring Festival performance is relatively good, worthy of investors’ attention.Economic Herald reporters through Wind information statistics found that since 2012, the first trading day after the Spring Festival, Shandong stocks have been bright performance.Among them, the price rose in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019 and 2021, accounting for 70% of the total, highlighting the “Red envelope effect” of the Spring Festival.It should be noted that in recent years, the rise of Shandong Stock plate on the first day of the Spring Festival has been magnifying. For example, in 2018, the rise of Shandong stock plate in 2019 and 2021 (the average value) reached 1.71%, 2.78% and 2.35% respectively, while the highest rise of Shandong stock plate in 2012-2017 was only 1.52%.In the past 10 years, only the First day after the Spring Festival in 2020 saw a significant decline (only 0.13% and 0.41% in 2012 and 2017 respectively), with a drop as high as 8.67%. However, the reason behind the decline was relatively special, mainly affected by the unexpected factor of COVID-19.However, although experienced the 2020 holiday after the first day of the crash, but after the rapid recovery of Lu Stocks, only half a month on the “recovery”, strong performance.In that year, Lu Shares also had a better performance, up 28.96% for the year.In fact, not only Lu Shares, in recent years A shares after the Spring Festival performance has rarely disappointed investors.In the past 12 years, the median cumulative return on the CHINext index in the five trading days after the Spring Festival was 4.1%, compared with 0.9% for the Shanghai Composite index and 0.6% for the CSI 300 index, according to the performance of A-shares after the Spring Festival compiled by Yanxiang since 2010.Take the Wind All-A index as an example, the average cumulative yield in the five trading days after the Spring Festival is 1.4%, and the median is 1.8%.According to Yan Xiang, the data show that the market performance during the Spring Festival (the five trading days before and after the festival) is significantly more stable than that of the whole year, “that is to say, compared with the overall increase of the whole year, the market red packets during the Spring Festival have the characteristics of low risk and high return.”Of course, the obvious decline in A shares since January 2022 still makes many investors nervous.In this regard, A number of brokers believe that the recent market volatility from the periphery of the market risk volatility and a-share companies intensive disclosure of the performance forecast, and taking into account the a-share company’s overall better fundamentals, blue chip, white horse target stable performance growth ability, A shares in the Spring Festival before and after the stabilization of the recovery is possible.Among them, bohai securities strategic point of view, this round of peripheral market turmoil on A shares of the impact of more partial mood, will not interfere with the fundamental expectations of A shares.Therefore, judging its impact is more temporary, investors need not worry too much about it.”From the historical data of the past 10 years, the concept of rising around the Spring Festival is relatively large, especially in 2022 to start the year with A share adjustment in the background, there is no need to continue to fall, I suggest holding shares during the holiday.”Yingda securities researcher Hui Xiangfeng said.So, which sectors will perform better after the Spring Festival?Yan Xiang pointed out that in the past 12 years of data, shenwan each level of industry in the Spring Festival before and after the general probability of closing up, and non-ferrous, electronic, computer and other plate performance is relatively good.Among them, the non-ferrous metal plate after the Spring Festival five trading days of cumulative gains of a median of 5.2%, the best performance.Economic Herald reporters found that only from shandong stocks, in recent years, non-ferrous, chemical, new energy, electronics and other plates after the Spring Festival first day performance is relatively good, worthy of investors’ attention.For example, on the first trading day after the Spring Festival in 2016, shandong Gold (600547.SH), Hengbang Shares (002237.sZ) and other precious metal plate stocks ushered in the outbreak, have been trading limit;In 2018, luxi Chemical (000830.SZ) and Hualu Hengsheng (600426.SH) led the rise, up 9.21% and 7.69% respectively;In 2019, the better performance for Zhongtong Bus (000957.SZ), Jicheng Electronics (002339.SZ), both realized trading limit;In 2021, it will be Jinjing Technology (600586.SH), Taihe New Materials (002254.SZ), Luxi Chemical and other stocks.”The rise of nonferrous metals and chemical sectors may come from the volatility of overseas bulk markets during the Spring Festival holiday.For example, gold prices rose during the Spring Festival in 2016, which led to the rise of A-share gold shares after the holiday.And international crude oil prices during the Spring Festival also often large fluctuations, will affect the performance of the chemical sector after the holiday.”Long-term attention to the capital market investors Cui Rongzhe told the Economic Guide reporters.However, he also pointed out that if the hope in the Spring Festival gold, crude oil surge, obviously there is a greater risk, suggested investors or listed companies from the fundamentals and policy considerations, layout.